CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z THU 22/01 - 06Z FRI 23/01 2004
ISSUED: 21/01 18:25Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across Agean Sea, NERN Mediterranean

General thunderstorms are forecast across the surrounding area of SLGT RISK

SYNOPSIS

Well-developed elongated upper trough situated over eastern Europe and central Mediterranean/northern Africa. Short-wave trough attm over Tunisia propagates NE-ward into eastern Mediterranean, and intense cyclogenesis is forecast over the Agean Sea. West of the forming surface low ... CAA will dominate over the Mediterranean. Over western Europe ... upper ridge will remain. Instability will be quite low in the range of this ridge. Best chances for convection will be over the western Mediterranean at the end of the forecast period, as upper short-wave trough will move SE-ward. Some thunderstorms may form, but potential seems to be too low to warrant a gen tstms area.

DISCUSSION

...Agean Sea, NERN Mediterranean ...
Cold front of intense surface pressure system will cross the Agean Sea during the morning. Soundings indicate some boundary-layer moisture and weak steep lapse rates. Tomorrow ... some CAPE should be available underneath the upper trough ... and along the cold front thunderstorms are forecast. Strong synoptic forcing in the range of the trough ... and WAA just east of the cold front indicates that organized convection will be possible along the cold front, and a MCS is not ruled out attm. Low-level shear will increase south of the surface low and should be sufficient for mesocyclones. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be possible with any supercell that forms. There is also a significant tornado threat as LCL should be low. To the south ... threat for severe wind gusts will increase. During the afternoon ... convective activity should decrease as CAA will dominate.

#